Principles for Dealing with the Changing World Order: Why Nations Succeed or Fail

Ray, this is profound and enlightning. So simple and so useful. Thank you!

Great book, informative.

All the text ellucidates about the perspective and the near future of the rise and fall of the civilizations as a continuous - where the falls are the "normal" - because when a civilization declines, the vacum left will be preempted by another new and pujannt civilization. Our job is prevent the falls and prepares - when it will be possible - for that!

Bardzo starannie wykonana.

Dalio has a unique perspective on the topic of the changing world order. He is a successful businessman who has spent his career analyzing economic trends and patterns, and this book is a culmination of his findings. His writing is clear and concise, making complex economic concepts easy to understand.One of the best features of the book is its organization. The book is broken down into 14 chapters, each focusing on a different aspect of the changing world order. Dalio starts with the big picture, examining the major forces driving the changing world order, before delving into the specifics of each major empire, including the Dutch, British, American, Chinese, Soviet, and Japanese empires. Ultimately, he brings everything full circle by discussing the changing world order today and what the future may hold.Another great aspect of the book is the way that Dalio weaves history and economics together. He doesn't just present economic theories in a vacuum; he uses real-world examples to show how they have played out over time. For example, in Chapter 5, he discusses the Great Depression and how it shaped the changing world order in the 1930s and 1940s. He also uses the rise of populism in Chapter 7 to illustrate how economic inequality can lead to political instability.Overall, I would highly recommend "The Changing World Order" to any intelligent human interested in economics, history, or politics. This book is a must-read for anyone who wants to understand the forces shaping our world today and what the future may hold. As Dalio himself puts it, "understanding how the world works is essential if you want to accomplish your goals and live a fulfilling life."Here are some key takeaways from the book:The changing world order is driven by three major forces: the changing relative powers of countries, the changing relative productivity of countries, and the changing values of countries.The rise and fall of empires is a natural part of the changing world order. Each empire has its own unique characteristics, but they all follow a similar pattern of rise, peak, and decline.The post-World War II order was built on the idea of free trade and cooperation between nations. However, this order is now under threat due to rising nationalism and protectionism.China is currently on the rise and is likely to become the world's dominant economic power in the coming decades. However, although this rise is not guaranteed, and there are many challenges that China will need to overcome, the US needs to step up its game on several fronts to compete.The future of the world order is uncertain, but there are a few things we can say with some degree of certainty. For example, the rise of automation and artificial intelligence is a hot topic today likely to have a major impact on the global economy in the coming years.Overall, "The Changing World Order" is a well-written and informative book that is sure to appeal to a wide range of readers. Whether you're a history buff, an economics nerd, or just someone who wants to better understand the world we live in, this book is well worth your time. As Dalio himself says, "The more you know, the more you'll understand, and the more you'll be able to make informed decisions about your own life." Five stars from me, give it a read!

For everybody who would like to learn in which circular structure empires and stock markets rise and fail, this book is the best decision to buy.Honestly.The immense focus on detail offers a guideline with which you can easily work to challenge your own investing ideas.No book has shaped my thinking about financial crises and central banks more than this book!This should be standard literature for every student!Part I is the best part one can wish for. It's about how the machine works.Part II concentrates on the history of the past empires - how they rose, what they experienced on the top and which reasons made them failPart III is a forecast for future development of the biggest key countries.

This is the way history should be taught: A way of finding patterns that may be useful to put bets on our future. It would be great if schools adopted this approach, as it's not only good to make financial investments (as successfully demonstrated by Dalio himself over the last 40 y), but it's also fundamental to assess our current situation and guess where it might head on. Highly recommended reading

For me, the reviewer, it is the most exciting book I have gotten my hands on in recent years. Because I myself wrote a book with overlapping objectives: "Die Intelligenz und Ihre Feinde: Aufstieg und Niedergang der Inustriegesellschaft [The Intelligenz and Its Enemies: The Rise and Fall of Industrial Society"; Graz: Ares 2012, 544 pages. (A masterpiece, too far-reaching, some critics thought. And since I had to agree with them, two updated abridged versions followed: "Das IQ-Gen"; Ares 2017, 159 pages, and "IQ Means Inequality: The Population Cycle that Drives Human History", KDP 2020, 138 pages. )Both Dalio and I are about the same age, but our educational and experiential backgrounds could hardly be more different. He, an extraordinarily successful financier, I a scientist among many. Yet we are both driven by the aspiration to recognize what holds the political world together at its core or what drives it into ruin. Dalio was prompted to his profound contemplation simply because he wants to optimize profits and losses of his long-term financial transactions (in Dalio's chapter: Investing in Light of the Big Cycle); I, because I want to comprehend and illuminate the ideological resistances that oppose research and findings on IQ differences in their motivations.Although the starting points of our analyses are completely different, we come to the same conclusions on the essential points (Chapter: The Big Cycle of Internal Order and Disorder; Chapter: The Big Cycle of External Order and Disorder): All political events are cyclical. All great powers experience rise, flourish and and decline; this has always been the case and will continue. Democracy is (with reference to Aristotle in Dalio and Weiss) no more than a stage in the cycle of political constitutions; the U.S. is currently in the phase before upheaval or revolution.Dalio has mastered the keyboard of the financial world (Chapter: The Big Cycle of Money, Credit, Debt, and Economic Activity; Chapter: The Changing Value of Money) with perfection, and his arguments are essentially based on it. But why do I think that Dalio wants to use the fever curve of the value of money and stock prices to infer the causes of change, but overlooks essentials?Dalio started investing money already as a student, I bought my first book with scientific claim as a student and that was: Witthauer, K.: Die Bevölkerung der Erde: Verteilung und Dynamik [The Population of the Earth: Dstribution and Dynamics]. Gotha: Haak 1958. Because also the number of births and the development of the age of life runs in each country in a cycle, for which the specialists coined the term demographic transition. The generation that will fill the labor market in the next 40 years. is already born today. Nothing determines the future more than their numbers, IQ and education. And I find it to be an unfortunate weakness in Dalio's book that the term demographics and an understanding of the Demographic Transition do not appear in it, only hidden and indirectly in: "Education. ... Half of the measure captures the absolute quantity of educated people at various levels and about half is placed on quality. such as higher education, rankings, test scores, and average years of education" (p. 506).But at what point in the demographic transition a nation and a state finds itself is a very important factor in its prospects in the competitive struggle among economies, not to mention the military one. In his book, Dalio thanks Henry Kissinger, Mario Draghi and Lee Kuan Yew, among many others, for their advice. And should no one really have pointed out to him the importance of demographic change for looking into the future? One of the proven results is that the later a country enters the early stages of demographic change, the faster it reaches the final stage, when the number of children born per woman falls far below two. In China and Iran, therefore, demographic change is occurring at a much faster pace than was the case in England or Germany. Different regions or parts of the population of a country may be in different stages of demographic change, as is the case in Brazil between the Northeast and the South, in South Africa between blacks and whites, and in the U.S. between the New England states and the Midwest. Accordingly, these differences correlate with differences in the political cycle of the corresponding subpopulations.That it is the shift in population proportions that destabilizes the Soviet Union in the long run was pointed out by Hélène Carrère d'Encausse in 1978 in her book "L'empire éclaté". Beginning in 1980, the proportion of non-Russians among recruits for the Red Army exceeded that of Russians. In 1991, the state and the great power that had grown over centuries as the Tsarist Empire disintegrated.Gunnar Heinsohn published in 2003 in his book " Söhne und Weltmacht: Terror im Aufstieg und Fall der Nationen [“Sons and World Power: Terror in the Rise and Fall of Nations]" a table (on pp. 60-69) in which he shows the percentage of the population under the age of 15 in the last half decade at that time. Peak values with a share of more than 40% - the children of that time are thus today 20 to 40 years old, the sons in the best man age and full fighting strength - had in 2003 among other things Ethiopia (47%). the Sudan (45%), Afghanistan (42%) and the Yemen (47%), thus states, which are torn since then by internal wars, as it Heinsohns data and remarks let expect. Such youth shares also had Germany and Russia a century earlier, before World War I and the Revolution. For Dalio, as a financial expert, this seems to be only a minor matter, the significance of which for cyclical events he does not discuss. But it is not only in all industrialized countries - i.e. also in Japan, Taiwan and South Korea, but also among the white population of North America, Australia and South Africa, but also in China - that the number of births per woman has long since fallen below the magic number of two; in recent years, the industrial threshold countries have followed with rapid acceleration.Another cyclical event that Dalio only partially recognizes in its full scope is the development and depletion of new energy sources and thus the development of energy and raw material prices. If one graphs world oil production and the number of the world population in the period 1900 to 2005, the two curves run parallel with equal increase (see Weiss: Die Intelligenz und Ihre Feinde, p. 124). But with this rise of oil production today or tomorrow is over, the descent begins or is already underway; natural gas has become more and more important. When Dalio looks at China's cyclical development in the period from 600 to 2000 (Chapter: The Big Cycle Rise of China and the Renminbi), he could have left out the centuries before the Industrial Revolution. After all, the exploitation and consumption of fossil energy for industry represents a singularity in human history, the end of which is in sight, at least at yesterday's prices.In the search for the inevitable mechanism, which lets the states and empires become large, in order to drive them then irrevocably into the ruin, I came across the book of Eckart Knaul "Das Biologische Massenwirkungsgesetz: Ursache vom Aufstieg und Untergang der Kulturen" (1985). I have quoted him in the following sense: "If we look back on the history of past empires and advanced civilizations, we are struck: Long before the external collapse, an internal decay set in. The economy stagnated and the finances of the state and the municipalities fell increasingly into disarray; the number of support recipients increased from year to year, even though each new ruler set out with the goal of reducing their numbers and the national debt. The security of citizens was at risk. ... Although no one wanted the decline, the states headed toward an abyss with internal consistency, as if their real goal were to fall into the abyss. ... If the cycle of constitutions has led to democracy, sooner or later it develops into a 'rule of the inferior', which redistributes ever more unrestrainedly and disrupts the economy" (Weiss: Das IQ-Gen. 2017, p. 9f.). Mind you, this is not a momentary description of the conditions in, say, Great Britain or Germany.The inner decay comes from the fact that there is also a cycle of human capital, a cycle of population quality, which Dalio understands in its approach, but not its inner consistency.The full passage of a cycle of constitutions presupposes that during a long period of upswing the mean IQ of the population increases significantly and the rule of law, which is a prerequisite of industrial society, emerges. Prussia, Saxony, England and other states were constitutional states before they became democracies. These states reached the apex of their economic rise before 1890 at a time when they were not developed democracies by today's standards. Economists have found an explanation in the fact that in the second half of the 19th century, concurrent with the decline in infant mortality, a reversal must have set in from which point on the poor had more children than the rich. In the book "Farewell to Alms" (2007) Gregory Clark has compiled statistics from England, which prove that in the period from 1500 to 1800, the economically more successful also had the higher number of children. Since economic success is correlated everywhere in the world with a higher IQ, originally the genes, which cause a higher IQ, must have enriched, before the development turned around 1880.Big and bad animals are known to be rare. They are at the top of the food chain. In German, we speak of a "high animal" when someone occupies a prominent social position. The big animals cannot reproduce at will; they are also the first to sense when the food margin begins to narrow. Couples limit their number of children when they fear that their offspring will no longer be able to maintain the social status of their parents, when social advancement is improbable and ways out through emigration or new settlement are not possible. Since upper-class places are rarer than those further down, birth restriction begins in the upper class. It is not so much the absolute population density that is important, but the relative social density.In mammals that establish a social hierarchy, population collapse and new beginnings are forced by a chain of events dictated by nature: The crowding of overpopulation leads to a striving for equality and the destruction of the social hierarchy. Not only on Easter Island has this cycle taken place in all its phases and terrible manifestations, but also repeatedly and repeatedly in complex human societies. Crucially, through this regulation, population density and behavioral change are constantly fed back, and the progression of the cycle presupposes the destruction of social hierarchy and the total disorientation of female individuals. The more highly qualified a woman is, the greater her desire to apply her knowledge and skills to her professional life. The more a woman insists on total equality, the less chance she has of balancing children and career and leading a happy marriage.If a biological species overuses its allotted space, then Natural Selection turns against the species as a whole and regulates it by a catastrophe down to a size that makes a new beginning possible, that is, the earth's population to 2 billion or below. While individual selection plays a major role in the ascent phase and gene frequencies increase for genes that are positively correlated with performance parameters - i.e. IQ in particular - negative selection and group selection prevail in the descent phase. This switching from individual selection to group selection is the crucial point that leads beyond Darwin and Marx....As if the earth is tired of a species that overuses it, evolution tries to put this species in its place and programs it from a certain turning point in the direction of catastrophe. Until now, all such catastrophes, when they affected the human species, were regional in nature. Now, for the first time, in the age of fossil fuels, humanity may have set the stage for a global catastrophe, with different world regions in converging phases of the cycle. For chaos and upheaval after 2030, my forecast (2012, p. 475. Table On the Cycle of Population Quality) is "very sharp increase in the price of energy, collapse of the central electric power grid." I had written this in the hope that I would not have to experience it myself. A mistake?Russia's demographic structure and thus its innovative strength is suffering from old age, its energy reserves show it to be a great power. In the end, no one knows what will be more important in the war in Ukraine. The final chapters of Dalio's book deal with the growing antagonism between China and the United States. Will there be war over Taiwan, and will the U.S. stand by Taiwan militarily or not? The cycle of political constitutions condemns both world powers to decline. According to Dalio's analysis, it is impossible to say today in which phase of decline China, which is still on the rise today, will find itself in relation to America, which is on the decline.The macroscopic processes of history result from the lives of billions of individual human beings. If we want to calculate our future, we have to arrive at a statistical description of society which has an analogy to the gas laws. The gas laws describe the state of a gas by the state variables pressure, volume, temperature and number of particles. If we apply this to society, then particle number and volume can easily be interpreted as population size and social density, i.e., the number of possible applicants to a job. For measuring the pressure and temperature of a society, Dalio's book is undoubtedly an extremely important contribution, but a measure of social mobility is still missing.As required in rigorous science, for Dalio the criterion for the goodness of a theory and prediction is whether it is accurate or not. When he predicts for South Africa (p. 500) an average annual growth of the real gross product (GDP) of more than 3% for the next 10 years, i.e. until 2031, then one can only wish and hope that he is still right at least for this period due to the country's wealth of raw materials. Because according to my own analysis, South Africa's demographic and social structure has led it inexorably down the road to chaos.Dalio's book is not a scientific book. Unfortunately, it lacks references or even footnotes, as well as an index. Nevertheless, the reviewer hopes that his review will somehow reach Dalio's screen and contribute to a substantial improvement of his computational models. My book, “Intelligence and Its Enemies” (2012), is dedicated to Hari Seldon. Why, who is he? He should have contributed to Dalio's book! And what is psychohistory?

Ray Dalio mais uma vez escreve uma obra compartilhando parte de seus conhecimentos adquiridos por meio de experiência, que supera expectativas. Este livro quando permite ao seu leitor ter uma compreensão mais ampla sobre economia mundial em função dos acontecimentos da história e como isto se manifesta no mundo atual - na relação entre impérios no passado e países no presente -, para tanto entendermos fatos que os conectam à prosperidade financeira ou ruína, como também para investidores reconhecerem sinais que lhes permite compreender a situação econômica mundial e assim elaborar suas estratégias de investimento para obter maiores êxitos. Para aqueles que leram "Big Debt Crisis" escrito por ele, este livro será uma extensão natural dos assuntos e sobretudo uma ampliação de horizontes sobre economia mundial e investimentos financeiros.

I hadn't expected to read more than a few chapters of this 500 page book. But once I got started I couldn't put the book down anymore. In the end I read it cover to cover and enjoyed it thoroughly.It presents a view of things, that I had not considered before. Very enlightening.I recommend the hard cover, because there are lots and lots of charts, that I could hardly read on my Kindel.And the Text-To-Speech function is absolutely useless. It is unintelligible.

I read the book and found it fascinating, as most of Dalio's content. Also wanted to state how amazed I am about Amazon functioning. Ordered the book without prime and 2 days later it was in my house (and with the best price I found). Keep doing that amazing job!

While the past has been accurately examined, the enormous contingencies we are witnessing the last three years makes me doubt on the future vision. There are many avalanches at sight that might profoundly change current practices to deal with climate change, domestic energy sources, military spending, food production and health care. Current social institutions are not responding fast enough to all these exploiting unattended concerns of the whole population.

I just finished this book and can see why you may read on the US Amazon people think it plays into China's hands. The reality is far from the truth:1) Dalio beautifully illustrates how cycles with multiple "determinants" drive political, financial and even psychological change through time2) He uses multiple empires and overview the key characteristics as to "why the failed" and also why they were succesful3) He puts it into language that anyone can understand4) He mentions both positive and negative things about both China and the US based on data not on emotional opinions - a brave thing to do in the 21st century5) He does not force an opinion and only makes suggestions based on dataOverall, a very useful and helpful book that has helped me re-allocate assets and focus on the future with more hedging in mind. The time to be concerned is when we all think things will be great forever and wealth inequality is high. The other data about polarity and key issues is very interesting as its obvious for us to see on the surface but its quantified here. A scry time to be in the US in some states